Stochastic Analysis of Dependable Hydropower Capacity

Indexed sequential modeling (ISM) has been proposed by the Western Area Power Administration as an alternative approach to developing firm marketable capacity, i.e., project-dependable hydropower capacity (PDC), in contrast with the usual approach of basing PDC on the most adverse period of record....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of water resources planning and management 1987-05, Vol.113 (3), p.422-437
Main Authors: Labadie, John W, Fontane, Darrell G, Tabios, Guillermo Q, Chou, Nine Fang
Format: Article
Language:English
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TECHNICAL PAPERS
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Summary:Indexed sequential modeling (ISM) has been proposed by the Western Area Power Administration as an alternative approach to developing firm marketable capacity, i.e., project-dependable hydropower capacity (PDC), in contrast with the usual approach of basing PDC on the most adverse period of record. ISM allows a probabilistic analysis of hydropower capacity by extracting a series of overlapping short-term (say, 10 year) inflow sequences directly from the historical record, which includes the most adverse period, and then simulating reservoir operations over this interval for each sequence. As a means of evaluating ISM, the New Melones Reservoir system in the federal Central Valley Project of California was selected as a case study for comparing hydropower output generated from ISM input with use of a multivariate stochastic inflow generation model. A comparison of monthly power and energy output at 95% confidence limits, 10% risk level, and most adverse, showed reasonably good correspondence between the two methods, except for a few months of energy production in the final year of simulation.
ISSN:0733-9496
1943-5452
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1987)113:3(422)