Survival of the Systems

• Published in: Trends in ecology & evolution (Amsterdam) 2021-04, Vol.36 (4), p.333-344
• Main Authors: Lenton, Timothy M., Kohler, Timothy A., Marquet, Pablo A., Boyle, Richard A., Crucifix, Michel, Wilkinson, David M., Scheffer, Marten
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Coral Reefs; Ecosystem; feedback cycle; Humans; persistence; selection; Selection, Genetic; social-ecological system
• ISSN: 0169-5347; 1872-8383
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.12.003

Since Darwin, individuals and more recently genes, have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on nonreproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies, has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any ‘self-perpetuating’ system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests, and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems, and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world. Recent theoretical progress highlights that natural selection can occur based solely on differential persistence of biological entities, without the need for conventional replication.This calls for a reconsideration of how ecosystems and social (-ecological) systems can evolve, based on identifying system-level properties that affect their persistence.Feedback cycles have irreducible properties arising from the interactions of unrelated components, and are critical to determining ecosystem and social system persistence.Self-perpetuating feedbacks involving the acquisition and recycling of resources, alteration of local environmental conditions, and amplification of disturbance factors, enhance ecosystem and social system spread and persistence.Cycles built from the by-products of traits, naturally selected at lower levels, avoid conflict between levels and types of selection.