Why expectations do or do not change after expectation violation: A comparison of seven models

• Published in: Consciousness and cognition 2021-03, Vol.89, p.103086-103086, Article 103086
• Main Authors: Pinquart, Martin, Endres, Dominik, Teige-Mocigemba, Sarah, Panitz, Christian, Schütz, Alexander C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Associative learning; Coping; Expectancy; Expectation disconfirmation; Expectation violation; Prediction error
• ISSN: 1053-8100; 1090-2376
• DOI: 10.1016/j.concog.2021.103086

•Expectations about future events are often disconfirmed.•Whether disconfirmation leads to expectation change depends on coping processes.•Three core coping processes are proposed, based on seven theoretical models.•Minimization of disconfirmation and search for confirmation stabilize expectations.•Surface change and core change of expectations can be distinguished. Individuals are often confronted with events that violate their expectations, but disconfirming evidence does not always lead to expectation change. We review seven theoretical models on how individuals cope with disconfirming expectations: associative learning theories, the ViolEx Model, the model of coping with expectation disconfirmation (Roese & Sherman, 2007), the Meaning Maintenance Model, the Predictive Processing Framework, Expectancy Violations Theory, and the Expectation-Disconfirmation Model of consumer satisfaction. We focus on the proposed processes that relate to persistence or change of expectations. We discuss similarities and differences between the models. Three core coping processes are identified across most of these models – minimization of the importance of expectation-disconfirming evidence, search for/production of future expectation-confirming evidence, and expectation change. Suggestions for refinements and extensions of the models as well as for future empirical work on model testing are drawn.