Potential distribution of four vectors of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis: The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes from the perspective of the ecological niche

• Published in: Acta tropica 2021-11, Vol.223, p.105894-105894, Article 105894
• Main Authors: Avila-Jimenez, Julian, Gutiérrez, Juan David, Altamiranda-Saavedra, Mariano
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Ecological niche modelling; Leishmaniasis; Potential distribution; Vectors
• ISSN: 0001-706X; 1873-6254
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.105894

•The potential distribution of leishmaniasis vectors responds dynamically to the effects of el niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) cycle.•Climatic information derived from remotely sensed data facilitates the development of distribution models at short timescales compatible to the duration of the ENSO cycle episodes.•The occurrence of el niño and la niña episodes modifies the potential distributions of ACL vectors, reducing their extension compared to the neutral conditions. The potential distribution of four American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis vectors under average conditions during Neutral (in between episodes), El Niño, and La Niña episodes from 2000 to 2018 were constructed through ecological niche modeling. The potential distribution in El Niño and La Niña were compared with the Neutral distribution. The four vector species (Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia ovallesi, Lutzomyia panamensis, and Lutzomyia trapidoi) decreased the potential distribution with the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña episodes. During El Niño, the reduction was concentrated over the dry ecosystems, while with the occurrence of La Niña, the potential distribution decreased over most of the Neotropic, leaving areas of climatic suitability concentrated in the Andean and Amazon areas, along with some scattered patches. We found evidence that the occurrence of the climatic anomalies has an effect on the potential distribution of this vector species.