Excess mortality in the United States in 2020: Forecasting and anomaly detection

•Excess mortality surveillance may be more reliable than disease-specific mortality.•This is critical during the COVID-19 pandemic due to burdens of data collection.•We used forecasting of 20 years of all-cause mortality to compute excess mortality.•Our excess deaths match closely with reported COVI...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:American journal of infection control 2021-09, Vol.49 (9), p.1189-1190
Main Authors: Wiemken, Timothy L., Rutschman, Ana Santos, Niemotka, Samson, Prener, Christopher G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
COVID-19
Death
Forecasting
Humans
Mortality
SARS-CoV-2
surveillance
United States - epidemiology
Vital statistics
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Summary:•Excess mortality surveillance may be more reliable than disease-specific mortality.•This is critical during the COVID-19 pandemic due to burdens of data collection.•We used forecasting of 20 years of all-cause mortality to compute excess mortality.•Our excess deaths match closely with reported COVID-19 specific mortality.•Novel approaches to the collection and real-time reporting of mortality are needed. All-cause mortality may be better than disease-specific data for computing excess COVID-19 mortality. We documented approximately 350,000 excess deaths using a 20-year forecast of all-cause mortality compared to provisional estimates. We must develop more granular approaches to the collection of mortality data for real-time evaluation of excess deaths.
ISSN:0196-6553
1527-3296
DOI:10.1016/j.ajic.2021.03.013