Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil

Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensit...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2021-05, Vol.372 (6544), p.821-826
Main Authors: Castro, Marcia C, Kim, Sun, Barberia, Lorena, Ribeiro, Ana Freitas, Gurzenda, Susie, Ribeiro, Karina Braga, Abbott, Erin, Blossom, Jeffrey, Rache, Beatriz, Singer, Burton H
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Clustering
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease spread
Disease transmission
Evolution
Fatalities
Health care
Inequalities
Municipalities
Mutation
Pandemics
Pattern analysis
Respiratory diseases
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Spike protein
Viral diseases
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Summary:Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We use daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures show that while no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.abh1558