The risk of recurrence in surgically treated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: a conditional probability approach

Over 50% of patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) experience locoregional recurrence, which is associated with poor outcome. In the course of follow-up for patients surviving primary surgery for HNSCC, one might ask: What is the probability of recurrence in one year considering...

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Published in:Acta oncologica 2021-07, Vol.60 (7), p.942-947
Main Authors: Borsetto, Daniele, Sethi, Mantegh, Polesel, Jerry, Tomasoni, Michele, Deganello, Alberto, Nicolai, Piero, Bossi, Paolo, Fabbris, Cristoforo, Molteni, Gabriele, Marchioni, Daniele, Tofanelli, Margherita, Cragnolini, Fiordaliso, Tirelli, Giancarlo, Ciorba, Andrea, Pelucchi, Stefano, Corazzi, Virginia, Canzi, Pietro, Benazzo, Marco, Lupato, Valentina, Giacomarra, Vittorio, Cazzador, Diego, Bandolin, Luigia, Menegaldo, Anna, Spinato, Giacomo, Obholzer, Rupert, Fussey, Jonathan, Boscolo-Rizzo, Paolo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
conditional probability
Head and neck cancers
Head and Neck Neoplasms - surgery
Humans
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - epidemiology
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - surgery
Probability
recurrence
Retrospective Studies
squamous cell carcinoma
Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and Neck - surgery
survival
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Summary:Over 50% of patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) experience locoregional recurrence, which is associated with poor outcome. In the course of follow-up for patients surviving primary surgery for HNSCC, one might ask: What is the probability of recurrence in one year considering that the cancer has not yet recurred to date? To answer this question, 979 patients surgically treated for HNSCC (i.e. cancer of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx or larynx) between March 2004 and June 2018 were enrolled in a multicenter retrospective cohort study, followed up for death and recurrence over a 5 year period. The conditional probability of recurrence in 12 months - i.e. the probability of recurrence in the next 12 months given that, to date, the patient has not recurred - was derived from the cumulative incidence function (Aalen-Johansen method). Overall, the probability of recurrence was the highest during the first (17.3%) and the second years (9.6%) after surgery, declining thereafter to less than 5.0% a year thereafter. The probability of recurrence was significantly higher for stage III-IV HNSCCs than for stage I-II HNSCCs in the first year after surgery (20.4% versus 10.0%; p 
ISSN:0284-186X
1651-226X
DOI:10.1080/0284186X.2021.1925343