The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis

The impact of initial condition uncertainty on short-range (up to 48 h) forecasts of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis is examined. Predictability experiments are conducted on 11 cases of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis that occurred in a long-term, perpetual January integration of a global, high-resolu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Monthly weather review 1989-12, Vol.117 (12), p.2800-2821
Main Authors: MULLEN, S. L, BAUMHEFNER, D. P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Marine
Meteorology
Weather analysis and prediction
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The impact of initial condition uncertainty on short-range (up to 48 h) forecasts of large-scale explosive cyclogenesis is examined. Predictability experiments are conducted on 11 cases of rapid oceanic cyclogenesis that occurred in a long-term, perpetual January integration of a global, high-resolution, spectral model. Results are derived from the 11-case ensemble average. The perturbation used to represent the initial condition error in this study has a magnitude and spatial distribution that closely matches estimates of global analysis error. Results from the predictability experiments are compared to a set of physics sensitivity experiments which are used to represent an estimate of a "typical" modeling error. (DBO)
ISSN:0027-0644
1520-0493
DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2800:TIOICU>2.0.CO;2