Prediction of the production of crops with respect to rainfall

• Published in: Environmental research 2021-11, Vol.202, p.111624-111624, Article 111624
• Main Author: Antony, Benny
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Machine learning; Regression; Rice; Wheat
• ISSN: 0013-9351; 1096-0953
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111624

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the Indian context. It is one of the highest employing sectors in the Indian scenario. Unlike other sectors agriculture is highly dependent on the quality and the quantity of both the external factors like rainfall, climate, pH of the soil, fertilizers and insecticides used, and internal factors like the quality of seeds. This paper predicts the production of crops as a function of rainfall for four Indian States. This knowledge can be implemented in generating a rough overview of how the production is based on rainfall and how much can a specific crop production for the amount of rainfall it receives. Two crops each belonging to four different states are chosen and the best regression model for the crop of the state is chosen. There is no research done solely on how rainfall affects crops of particular states. The proposed method of evaluation is better than other existing methods of evaluation as it evaluates all the regression techniques (Linear Regression, Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression, Decision Tree Regression, Random Forest, and XGBRegression) for two crops of four individual states. For balanced evaluation, two states of North India and two states of South India are selected. The regression techniques are evaluated based on their Mean Squared Error. •Crops of same species have different production rates within a same country.•Performance of each algorithm is different for crops within state.•Rainfall is the key determining factor for crop production in India.•Production of crop is affected by environment more than the genotype.•Predicting the production provides high impetus for developing economies.