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Accumulative risk of clinical event in high-risk radiologically isolated syndrome in Argentina: data from the nationwide registry RelevarEM

Introduction We aimed to analyze the accumulative risk of MRI and OB factors for evolution from RIS to MS in subjects included in the Argentinean MS registry (NCT03375177). Methods RIS subjects were identified according to RIS diagnosis criteria. Subjects were longitudinally followed with clinical a...

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Published in:Journal of neurology 2022-04, Vol.269 (4), p.2073-2079
Main Authors: Rojas, Juan I., Pappolla, Agustín, Blaya, Patricio, Marrodán, Mariano, Ysrraelit, María C., Luetic, Geraldine, Liwacki, Susana, Barboza, Andrés, Burgos, Marcos, Cohen, Leila, Mainella, Carolina, Zanga, Gisela, Menichini, María L., Tavolini, Dario, Tkachuk, Verónica, Lopez, Pablo, Lequizamon, Felisa, Knorre, Eduardo, Nofal, Pedro, Patrucco, Liliana, Miguez, Jimena, Cristiano, Edgardo, Fiol, Marcela, Correale, Jorge, Gaitán, María I., Alonso, Ricardo, Silva, Berenice, Garcea, Orlando, Carrá, Adriana, Fernandez Liguori, Nora, Alonso Serena, Marina, Carnero Contentti, Edgar
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creator Rojas, Juan I.
Pappolla, Agustín
Blaya, Patricio
Marrodán, Mariano
Ysrraelit, María C.
Luetic, Geraldine
Liwacki, Susana
Barboza, Andrés
Burgos, Marcos
Cohen, Leila
Mainella, Carolina
Zanga, Gisela
Menichini, María L.
Tavolini, Dario
Tkachuk, Verónica
Lopez, Pablo
Lequizamon, Felisa
Knorre, Eduardo
Nofal, Pedro
Patrucco, Liliana
Miguez, Jimena
Cristiano, Edgardo
Fiol, Marcela
Correale, Jorge
Gaitán, María I.
Alonso, Ricardo
Silva, Berenice
Garcea, Orlando
Carrá, Adriana
Fernandez Liguori, Nora
Alonso Serena, Marina
Carnero Contentti, Edgar
description Introduction We aimed to analyze the accumulative risk of MRI and OB factors for evolution from RIS to MS in subjects included in the Argentinean MS registry (NCT03375177). Methods RIS subjects were identified according to RIS diagnosis criteria. Subjects were longitudinally followed with clinical and MRI at intervals of 6 months. Time from RIS identification to the first clinical event was estimated using Kaplan–Meier. Multivariable Cox regression models were created to assess the independent predictive value of demographic characteristics, as well as clinical, OB and MRI data on time to the first clinical event. The single and increased risk factor of evolution of RIS was quantified. Results A total of 88 RIS subjects, mean follow-up time 42 ± 4 months were included. 39 (44.3%) and 23 (26.1%) had a new MRI lesion or a clinical event, respectively, during the follow-up. OB (HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.29–10.1, p  = 0.004), infratentorial lesions (HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.09–7.5) and spinal cord lesions (HR 5.3, 95% CI 1.4–8.2, p  = 0.01) at RIS identification were independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The accumulative risk showed that when two of the three factors (OB, infratentorial or spinal cord lesions) were present the HR was 10.4, 95% CI 4.4–22, p  
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s00415-021-10791-4
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Methods RIS subjects were identified according to RIS diagnosis criteria. Subjects were longitudinally followed with clinical and MRI at intervals of 6 months. Time from RIS identification to the first clinical event was estimated using Kaplan–Meier. Multivariable Cox regression models were created to assess the independent predictive value of demographic characteristics, as well as clinical, OB and MRI data on time to the first clinical event. The single and increased risk factor of evolution of RIS was quantified. Results A total of 88 RIS subjects, mean follow-up time 42 ± 4 months were included. 39 (44.3%) and 23 (26.1%) had a new MRI lesion or a clinical event, respectively, during the follow-up. OB (HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.29–10.1, p  = 0.004), infratentorial lesions (HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.09–7.5) and spinal cord lesions (HR 5.3, 95% CI 1.4–8.2, p  = 0.01) at RIS identification were independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The accumulative risk showed that when two of the three factors (OB, infratentorial or spinal cord lesions) were present the HR was 10.4, 95% CI 4.4–22, p  &lt; 0.001, and when three factors were present, it was HR 15.6, 95% CI 5.7–28, p  &lt; 0.001 for a relapse. Conclusion The presence of three factors significantly increased the risk of clinical event; high-risk subjects should probably be managed by a different approach than those used for individuals without high-risk factors.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0340-5354</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1432-1459</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00415-021-10791-4</identifier><identifier>PMID: 34491406</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Argentina - epidemiology ; Demyelinating Diseases - diagnosis ; Disease Progression ; Humans ; Lesions ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging ; Medicine ; Medicine &amp; Public Health ; Multiple Sclerosis - diagnostic imaging ; Multiple Sclerosis - epidemiology ; NCT ; NCT03375177 ; Neurology ; Neuroradiology ; Neurosciences ; Original Communication ; Registries ; Regression analysis ; Risk factors ; Spinal cord</subject><ispartof>Journal of neurology, 2022-04, Vol.269 (4), p.2073-2079</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021</rights><rights>2021. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.</rights><rights>Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-9c96a7e6f33cc07003fcdef6b3a791a2946dbd34dc96c09f9105eaae2cc8ea4f3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-9c96a7e6f33cc07003fcdef6b3a791a2946dbd34dc96c09f9105eaae2cc8ea4f3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34491406$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Rojas, Juan I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pappolla, Agustín</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Blaya, Patricio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Marrodán, Mariano</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ysrraelit, María C.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Luetic, Geraldine</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Liwacki, Susana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Barboza, Andrés</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Burgos, Marcos</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cohen, Leila</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mainella, Carolina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zanga, Gisela</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Menichini, María L.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tavolini, Dario</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tkachuk, Verónica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lopez, Pablo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lequizamon, Felisa</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Knorre, Eduardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Nofal, Pedro</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Patrucco, Liliana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Miguez, Jimena</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cristiano, Edgardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fiol, Marcela</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Correale, Jorge</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Gaitán, María I.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alonso, Ricardo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Silva, Berenice</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Garcea, Orlando</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carrá, Adriana</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Fernandez Liguori, Nora</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Alonso Serena, Marina</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Carnero Contentti, Edgar</creatorcontrib><title>Accumulative risk of clinical event in high-risk radiologically isolated syndrome in Argentina: data from the nationwide registry RelevarEM</title><title>Journal of neurology</title><addtitle>J Neurol</addtitle><addtitle>J Neurol</addtitle><description>Introduction We aimed to analyze the accumulative risk of MRI and OB factors for evolution from RIS to MS in subjects included in the Argentinean MS registry (NCT03375177). Methods RIS subjects were identified according to RIS diagnosis criteria. Subjects were longitudinally followed with clinical and MRI at intervals of 6 months. Time from RIS identification to the first clinical event was estimated using Kaplan–Meier. Multivariable Cox regression models were created to assess the independent predictive value of demographic characteristics, as well as clinical, OB and MRI data on time to the first clinical event. The single and increased risk factor of evolution of RIS was quantified. Results A total of 88 RIS subjects, mean follow-up time 42 ± 4 months were included. 39 (44.3%) and 23 (26.1%) had a new MRI lesion or a clinical event, respectively, during the follow-up. OB (HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.29–10.1, p  = 0.004), infratentorial lesions (HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.09–7.5) and spinal cord lesions (HR 5.3, 95% CI 1.4–8.2, p  = 0.01) at RIS identification were independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The accumulative risk showed that when two of the three factors (OB, infratentorial or spinal cord lesions) were present the HR was 10.4, 95% CI 4.4–22, p  &lt; 0.001, and when three factors were present, it was HR 15.6, 95% CI 5.7–28, p  &lt; 0.001 for a relapse. 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Pappolla, Agustín ; Blaya, Patricio ; Marrodán, Mariano ; Ysrraelit, María C. ; Luetic, Geraldine ; Liwacki, Susana ; Barboza, Andrés ; Burgos, Marcos ; Cohen, Leila ; Mainella, Carolina ; Zanga, Gisela ; Menichini, María L. ; Tavolini, Dario ; Tkachuk, Verónica ; Lopez, Pablo ; Lequizamon, Felisa ; Knorre, Eduardo ; Nofal, Pedro ; Patrucco, Liliana ; Miguez, Jimena ; Cristiano, Edgardo ; Fiol, Marcela ; Correale, Jorge ; Gaitán, María I. ; Alonso, Ricardo ; Silva, Berenice ; Garcea, Orlando ; Carrá, Adriana ; Fernandez Liguori, Nora ; Alonso Serena, Marina ; Carnero Contentti, Edgar</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c375t-9c96a7e6f33cc07003fcdef6b3a791a2946dbd34dc96c09f9105eaae2cc8ea4f3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2022</creationdate><topic>Argentina - epidemiology</topic><topic>Demyelinating Diseases - diagnosis</topic><topic>Disease Progression</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Lesions</topic><topic>Magnetic Resonance Imaging</topic><topic>Medicine</topic><topic>Medicine &amp; 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Methods RIS subjects were identified according to RIS diagnosis criteria. Subjects were longitudinally followed with clinical and MRI at intervals of 6 months. Time from RIS identification to the first clinical event was estimated using Kaplan–Meier. Multivariable Cox regression models were created to assess the independent predictive value of demographic characteristics, as well as clinical, OB and MRI data on time to the first clinical event. The single and increased risk factor of evolution of RIS was quantified. Results A total of 88 RIS subjects, mean follow-up time 42 ± 4 months were included. 39 (44.3%) and 23 (26.1%) had a new MRI lesion or a clinical event, respectively, during the follow-up. OB (HR 5.9, 95% CI 1.29–10.1, p  = 0.004), infratentorial lesions (HR 3.7, 95% CI 1.09–7.5) and spinal cord lesions (HR 5.3, 95% CI 1.4–8.2, p  = 0.01) at RIS identification were independent predictors associated with a subsequent clinical event. The accumulative risk showed that when two of the three factors (OB, infratentorial or spinal cord lesions) were present the HR was 10.4, 95% CI 4.4–22, p  &lt; 0.001, and when three factors were present, it was HR 15.6, 95% CI 5.7–28, p  &lt; 0.001 for a relapse. Conclusion The presence of three factors significantly increased the risk of clinical event; high-risk subjects should probably be managed by a different approach than those used for individuals without high-risk factors.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><pmid>34491406</pmid><doi>10.1007/s00415-021-10791-4</doi><tpages>7</tpages></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 0340-5354
ispartof Journal of neurology, 2022-04, Vol.269 (4), p.2073-2079
issn 0340-5354
1432-1459
language eng
recordid cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_2570108897
source Springer Nature
subjects Argentina - epidemiology
Demyelinating Diseases - diagnosis
Disease Progression
Humans
Lesions
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Multiple Sclerosis - diagnostic imaging
Multiple Sclerosis - epidemiology
NCT
NCT03375177
Neurology
Neuroradiology
Neurosciences
Original Communication
Registries
Regression analysis
Risk factors
Spinal cord
title Accumulative risk of clinical event in high-risk radiologically isolated syndrome in Argentina: data from the nationwide registry RelevarEM
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