Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China’s grain production

• Published in: Environmental science and pollution research international 2021-03, Vol.28 (12), p.14508-14520
• Main Authors: Ha, Trinh Thi Viet, Fan, Honglu, Shuang, Li
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: adverse effects; Agriculture; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Carbon; China; climate; Climate Change; Climate effects; Climate models; data collection; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecotoxicology; Edible Grain; Empirical analysis; empirical models; Environment; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Health; Environmental impact; Environmental science; fertilizers; General circulation models; Irrigation; labor force; Regional planning; Research Article; Temperature; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0944-1344; 1614-7499
• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-11602-5

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.