Integrated Assessment of Acid-Deposition Effects on Lake Acidification

• Published in: Journal of environmental engineering (New York, N.Y.) N.Y.), 1992-01, Vol.118 (1), p.120-134
• Main Authors: Rubin, Edward S, Small, Mitchell J, Bloyd, Cary N, Henrion, Max
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Continental surface waters; Exact sciences and technology; Freshwater; Natural water pollution; Pollution; TECHNICAL PAPERS; Water treatment and pollution
• ISSN: 0733-9372; 1943-7870
• DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(1992)118:1(120)

An integrated assessment model is used to estimate SO2 emission effects on regional lake acidification and fish viability in two regions of North America (Adirondack Park, New York, and the Boundary Waters region of northern Minnesota). An uncertainty analysis is employed to estimate the likely range of possible impacts. Based on emission projections for the United States and Canada, lake acidification in these two regions appears likely to improve slowly over the next two decades. An acid-rain control program will accelerate the recovery of acidic lakes at Adirondack Park, with a projected decrease over the no-control case of approximately 2-11% in the number of lakes below pH 5.5 and a 0.4-6% increase in the number of lakes potentially able to support brook or lake trout by the year 2010. For Boundary Waters, the expected improvements are negligible since deposition levels are relatively low. Our analysis does demonstrate a potential for larger or smaller improvements in these two regions, with lower probabilities of occurrence. Uncertainties in regional lake chemistry and aquatic biology dominate the overall uncertainty in acidification effects estimated for these two regions, within the limitations of the analysis.