The role of ambient parameters on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: A machine learning model

BACKGROUND: In recent years the relationship between ambient air temperature and the prevalence of viral infection has been under investigation. OBJECTIVE: The study was aimed at providing the statistical and machine learning-based analysis to investigate the influence of climatic factors on frequen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Work (Reading, Mass.) Mass.), 2021-01, Vol.70 (2), p.377-385
Main Authors: Jamshidnezhad, Amir, Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad, Ghavamabadi, Leila Ibrahimi, Marashi, Seyed Mahdi Hossaeini, Mousavi, Hediye, Zilae, Marzieh, Dehaghi, Behzad Fouladi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air conditioning
Air temperature
Ambient temperature
Artificial neural networks
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Indoor environments
Investigations
Learning algorithms
Learning theory
Machine learning
Model accuracy
Neural networks
Viral diseases
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Summary:BACKGROUND: In recent years the relationship between ambient air temperature and the prevalence of viral infection has been under investigation. OBJECTIVE: The study was aimed at providing the statistical and machine learning-based analysis to investigate the influence of climatic factors on frequency of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. METHOD: The data of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and some climatic factors related to 31 provinces of Iran between 04/03/2020 and 05/05/2020 was gathered from official resources. In order to investigate the important climatic factors on the frequency of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in all studied cities, a model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed. RESULTS: The proposed ANN model showed accuracy rates of 87.25%and 86.4%in the training and testing stage, respectively, for classification of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The results showed that in the city of Ahvaz, despite the increase in temperature, the coefficient of determination R2 has been increasing. CONCLUSION: This study clearly showed that, with increasing outdoor temperature, the use of air conditioning systems to set a comfort zone temperature is unavoidable. Thus, the number of positive cases of COVID-19 increases. Also, this study shows the role of closed-air cycle condition in the indoor environment of tropical cities.
ISSN:1051-9815
1875-9270
DOI:10.3233/WOR-210463