A productivity bottleneck in the Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras): Early life-history processes and recruitment variability

• Published in: Marine environmental research 2022-05, Vol.177, p.105638-105638, Article 105638
• Main Authors: Arula, T., Simm, M., Herkül, K., Kotta, J., Houde, E.D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Abundance; Animals; Anomalies; Baltic herring; Boosted regression tree model; Climate change; Climate effect; Clupea harengus; Clupea harengus membras; Dynamics; Environmental conditions; Fish; Fishes; Growth rate; Gulf of Riga; Larva; Larvae; Larval development; Life history; Marine fishes; Mild winters; Nursery grounds; Postflexion herring larvae; Recruitment; Recruitment (fisheries); Seafood; Seasons; Seawater; Spawning; Spring; Spring (season); Water temperature; Year class
• ISSN: 0141-1136; 1879-0291
• DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105638

Exogenous anomalies induced by contemporary climate change may severely impact dynamics of early life stages of fish. Here, we modelled how growth rate and abundance of postflexion larvae, and recruitment of Baltic spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus membras) in the Pärnu Bay, Gulf of Riga (GoR) may respond to shifting climate variables. Higher larval growth rates were aligned with later seasonal emergence of yolk-sac larvae, while lower abundance of postflexion larvae occurred in years of earlier seasonal seawater warming. Cooler temperatures (16 °C occurred in DoY 170-180s in 1960s and '70s, while in recent decades it is in DoY 130-150s.•Evolving thermal dynamics have developed relatively recently and in future present a bottleneck for herring production.