New developments in the forecasting of monthly overnight stays in the North Region of Portugal

The Tourism sector is of strategic importance to the North Region of Portugal and is growing. Forecasting monthly overnight stays in this region is, therefore, a relevant problem. In this paper, we analyze data more recent than those considered in previous studies and use them to develop and compare...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of applied statistics 2020, Vol.47 (13-15), p.2927-2940
Main Authors: Silva, Isabel, Alonso, Hugo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Application Note: V WCDANM 2018: Advances in Computational Data Analysis
Data analysis
Forecasting
Mathematical models
neural networks
Other
overnight stays
singular spectrum analysis
Spectrum analysis
Statistical methods
time series
Tourism
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Summary:The Tourism sector is of strategic importance to the North Region of Portugal and is growing. Forecasting monthly overnight stays in this region is, therefore, a relevant problem. In this paper, we analyze data more recent than those considered in previous studies and use them to develop and compare several forecasting models and methods. We conclude that the best results are achieved by models based on a non-parametric approach not considered so far for these data, the singular spectrum analysis.
ISSN:0266-4763
1360-0532
DOI:10.1080/02664763.2020.1795812