Drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014: Time-series analyses by age, sex, race, urbanicity and drought severity

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2022-09, Vol.840, p.156660, Article 156660
• Main Authors: Abadi, Azar M., Gwon, Yeongjin, Gribble, Matthew O., Berman, Jesse D., Bilotta, Rocky, Hobbins, Mike, Bell, Jesse E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayes Theorem; Black or African American; Black People; Climate Change; Demography; Drought; Droughts; Female; Health disparity; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Mortality; Nebraska - epidemiology; Public health; Urbanicity
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156660

Climate change will increase drought duration and severity in many regions around the world, including the Central Plains of North America. However, studies on drought-related health impacts are still sparse. This study aims to explore the potential associations between drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014. The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) were used to define short-, medium- and long-term drought exposures, respectively. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated censored negative binomial (ZICNB) regression model to estimate the overall association between drought and annual mortality first in the total population and second in stratified sub-populations based on age, race, sex, and the urbanicity class of the counties. The main findings indicate that there is a slightly negative association between all-cause mortality and all types of droughts in the total population, though the effect is statistically null. The joint-stratified analysis renders significant results for a few sub-groups. White population aged 25–34 and 45–64 in metro counties and 45–54 in non-metro counties were the population more at risk in Nebraska. No positive associations were observed in any race besides white. Black males aged 20–24 and white females older than 85 showed protective effect against drought mainly in metro counties. We also found that more sub-populations had higher rates of mortality with longer-term droughts compared to shorter-term droughts (12-month vs 1- or 6-month timescales), in both metro and non-metro counties, collectively. Our results suggest that mortality in middle aged white population in Nebraska shows a greater association with drought. Moreover, women aged 45–54 were more affected than men in non-metro counties. With a projected increase in the frequency and severity of drought due to climate change, understanding these relationships between drought and human health will better inform drought mitigation planning to reduce potential impacts. [Display omitted] •Studies on drought-related health impacts are sparse.•There is a slightly negative association between mortality and drought in the total population, however the effect is statistically null.•Pathways to drought-related health outcomes are region and demographic group specific.•White population aged 25–34 and 45–64 were the most at risk.•Longer-term droughts are associated with more heightened mortality rates among sub-populations in both metro and non-metro counties.