Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ambio 2023-02, Vol.52 (2), p.411-424
Main Authors: Ednie, Gabrielle, Kapoor, Tyreen, Koppel, Olga, Piczak, Morgan L., Reid, Jessica L., Murdoch, Alyssa D., Cook, Carly N., Sutherland, William J., Cooke, Steven J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropocene
Artificial Intelligence
Atmospheric Sciences
Biodiversity
Case studies
Conservation
Conservation of Natural Resources
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecology
Environment
Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
Environmental Management
Environmental science
Forecasting
Natural resource management
New technology
Perspective
Physical Geography
Planning
Predictions
Risk assessment
Scientists
Taxonomy
Trends
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Summary:Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.
ISSN:0044-7447
1654-7209
1654-7209
DOI:10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0