Subnational implications from climate and air pollution policies in India’s electricity sector

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2022-11, Vol.378 (6620), p.eabh1484-eabh1484
• Main Authors: Sengupta, Shayak, Adams, Peter J., Deetjen, Thomas A., Kamboj, Puneet, D’Souza, Swati, Tongia, Rahul, Azevedo, Inês M. L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Climate policy; Coal; Coal mines; Coal mining; Coal-fired power plants; Consumption; Cost analysis; Costs; Decarbonization; Electric industries; Electric power demand; Electric power generation; Electricity; Electricity consumption; Electricity generation; Emission analysis; Emissions; Emissions control; Energy; Energy policy; Energy transition; Environmental policy; Fuels; Greenhouse gases; Heterogeneity; Hydroelectric power; Industrial plant emissions; Jurisdiction; Net zero; Pollutants; Pollution; Power plants; Public policy; Reduced order models; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Spatial heterogeneity; Sulfur; Sulfur dioxide; Taxation
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.abh1484

Emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in India are important contributors to climate change and health damages. This study estimates current emissions from India’s electricity sector and simulates the state-level implications of climate change and air pollution policies. We find that (i) a carbon tax results in little short-term emissions reductions because there is not enough dispatchable lower emission spare capacity to substitute coal; (ii) moving toward regional dispatch markets rather than state-level dispatch decisions will not lead to emissions reductions; (iii) policies that have modest emissions effects at the national level nonetheless have disparate state-level emissions impacts; and (iv) pricing or incentive mechanisms tied to production or consumption will result in markedly different costs to states. India is the world’s third largest producer of carbon dioxide even though its per capita emissions are very low. As India’s population becomes more affluent and consumes more energy, their power sector, now heavily reliant on coal, will grow. Therefore, greenhouse gas emissions and other types of air pollution likely will also grow unless large changes are made to the electricity production sector. Sengupta et al . present a highly resolved model of Indian power generation and demand that assesses the emission impacts of various power sector policy interventions in India (see the Perspective by Deshmukh and Chatterjee). This analysis provides valuable guidance about the development of the power sector and the costs associated with different development pathways. —HJS India should consider climate change and air pollution impacts as it plans its future electricity infrastructure.