Simulating future land use by coupling ecological security patterns and multiple scenarios

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2023-02, Vol.859 (Pt 1), p.160262-160262, Article 160262
• Main Authors: Nie, Wenbin, Xu, Bin, Yang, Fan, Shi, Yan, Liu, Bintao, Wu, Renwu, Lin, Wei, Pei, Hui, Bao, Zhiyi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: China; Computer Simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Ecological security pattern; Economic Development; Ecosystem; Land use optimization; Multi-scenario simulation; PLUS model; Urban expansion; Urban Renewal
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160262

A land use simulation model with coupling constraints of ecological security patterns (ESPs) and multiple scenarios (MSs) was developed using the PLUS model. The research scale was zoned with environmental functional regions, where land management policies were formulated. A case study in Anji County successfully demonstrated the application of the ESP-MS-PLUS model. First, we constructed three different levels of ESPs as ecological constraints by utilizing ecosystem services evaluation and circuit theory. Second, four scenarios of land use and land cover changes (LUCCs) in 2034 were assumed, namely business as usual (BAU), priority given to urban development (PUD), priority given to ecological protection (PEP), and balanced urban development and ecological protection (BUE). Then, the basic ecological constraints (ecological red line areas and waters) and three types of ESPs were coupled with the four scenarios. The results of the simulation and analysis of landscape metrics under each scenario showed that the PEP and BUE scenarios would effectively reduce the degree and speed of ecological destruction. In addition, there were three environmental functional areas that could be used as priority areas for urban construction to ensure economic development. This study provides a new mechanism for land use optimization in the context of ecological protection at scales conducive to practice. [Display omitted] •Coherent ecologically protected land were identified during the land use simulation.•The constructed land simulation model coupled spatial and quantitative constraints.•The zoning method considers the implementation of superior planning and policies.•This model can guide future land use optimization decisions.