IEA, OPEC oil supply forecasts challenged

In the global petroleum industry, many major organizations tackle the job of forecasting future oil supplies. Because the present standard forecast horizons are for 2010 and 2020, forecasters are taking little risk of being proven wrong, especially in a world that ticks ever faster. By those dates,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Oil & gas journal 2001-04, Vol.99 (18), p.24-26
Main Authors: BAKHTIARI, A.M.S, SHAHBUDAGHLOU, F
Format: Magazinearticle
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Applied sciences
Chemical engineering
Comparative analysis
Cooperation
Corporate planning
Crude oil
Economic data
Energy
Energy economics
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasts
Fossil fuels and derived products
General, economic and professional studies
International markets
Oil
Oil fields
Oil reserves
Petroleum industry
Supply
Trends
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Summary:In the global petroleum industry, many major organizations tackle the job of forecasting future oil supplies. Because the present standard forecast horizons are for 2010 and 2020, forecasters are taking little risk of being proven wrong, especially in a world that ticks ever faster. By those dates, who will remember forecasts made now? OPEC and the Paris-based International Energy Agency-the oil-sharing mechanism for members of the OECD-are among the organizations that release such forecasts. For oil supply forecasts, a decade sounds like eternity. Even a two-year span can bring dramatic changes in forecasts, as proven by a comparison of two IEA World Energy Outlook forecasts for 2020 that were made in 1998 and 2000.
ISSN:0030-1388
1944-9151