Estimating the Global Prevalence of Mass Public Shootings

Previous studies have yielded widely divergent conclusions about the percentage of all mass public shootings globally that take place in the US, ranging from a low of 3% to a high of 36%. Because of documented underreporting of lower-severity attacks involving fewer than 10 victim fatalities in US c...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology 2023-12, Vol.67 (16), p.1642-1658
Main Authors: Duwe, Grant, Sanders, Nathan E., Rocque, Michael, Alan Fox, James
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
General public
Mass murders
Measurement
Shootings
Underreporting
World population
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Previous studies have yielded widely divergent conclusions about the percentage of all mass public shootings globally that take place in the US, ranging from a low of 3% to a high of 36%. Because of documented underreporting of lower-severity attacks involving fewer than 10 victim fatalities in US cases in these studies, it is reasonable to assume that this underreporting issue also applies to their measurement of mass public shootings outside the US. To estimate the total number of mass public shootings worldwide, we use multiple assumptions and modeling approaches, including a hierarchical Bayesian model. Our estimates show the US accounted for anywhere between 16% and 26% of the world’s mass public shootings during the 1976 to 2012 period. These estimates suggest the US share of the total is between four and six times higher than its 4% share of the world’s population.
ISSN:0306-624X
1552-6933
DOI:10.1177/0306624X221139070