Multiple sclerosis incidence temporal trend in the Northeast of Iran: Using the Empirical Bayesian method

• Published in: Multiple sclerosis and related disorders 2023-02, Vol.70, p.104469-104469, Article 104469
• Main Authors: Taghizadeh-Diva, Seyed Esmail, Khosravi, Ahmad, Zolfaghari, Sepideh, Hosseinzadeh, Ali
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayes Theorem; Female; Humans; Incidence; Iran - epidemiology; Iran, Empirical Bayesian; Longitudinal Studies; Male; Multiple sclerosis; Multiple Sclerosis - epidemiology; Time trends
• ISSN: 2211-0348; 2211-0356
• DOI: 10.1016/j.msard.2022.104469

•Shahroud county is one of the high-risk areas for MS and MS incidence in it is similar to global changes.•The average age at the time of diagnosis of the patients remained relatively stable over the time.•The MS incidence has increased by 34% from 2005 to 2020 in shahroud county.•It is forecasted that the MS incidence will increase in the coming years in shahroud county. In recent years dramatic changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence have been reported in different provinces in Iran. This study was conducted to assess MS incidence temporal trends from March 21, 2005, to March 20, 2020, and provide a forecast until the end of 2025 in Shahroud county. This longitudinal study was carried out based on the data obtained from the MS registration system in Shahroud county. First, the annual incidence rates were calculated based on the year of diagnosis and smoothed using the Empirical Bayesian Method. Then temporal trends and annual percent change (APC) of MS incidence were analyzed using Joinpoint (JP) regression. Finally, the univariate time series model analysis was used to estimate the MS incidence trend until the end of 2025. A total of 234 newly diagnosed cases (60 [25.64%] males and 174 [74.36.4%] females) were examined in this study. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 31.40 ± 3.78. It was 32.01 ± 6.35 and 30.66 ± 4.27 years for males and females, respectively (P