How to Spot A Recession

Dmitrieva explains that the coming recession may be the most anticipated in decades, but figuring out when it's started may be tougher than ever. When it comes to forecasting a recession, economists today have an incredible wealth of tools and data. Even so, it's still more of an art than...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bloomberg businessweek (Online) 2023-01 (4771), p.24
Main Author: Dmitrieva, Katia
Format: Magazinearticle
Language:English
Subjects:
Economic forecasting
Economic indicators
Economists
Recessions
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Dmitrieva explains that the coming recession may be the most anticipated in decades, but figuring out when it's started may be tougher than ever. When it comes to forecasting a recession, economists today have an incredible wealth of tools and data. Even so, it's still more of an art than a science. Most economists predict a downturn in the US this year, precipitated by the Federal Reserve's barrage of interest-rate hikes to combat inflation. Many countries define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, but the US delegates this assessment to a group of elite academics who meet in secret and typically take about a year to make a call. The trick is catching one before it happens. Economists, who have had some noteworthy misses on inflation and GDP in recent years, are the first to admit that forecasting the timing of a downturn is practically impossible. The exercise is more akin to putting together the pieces of a puzzle, with each economic indicator filling in part of an image.
ISSN:0007-7135
2162-657X