A probabilistic model for murder weapon identification using stab-marks in human ribs

The aim of this article is to provide a scientific and statistical basis to identify the murder weapon in stabbing cases from the geometric characteristics of the stab-marks left on human ribs. For this purpose, a quantitative predictive model is developed, based on geometric measurements of the sta...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of legal medicine 2023-09, Vol.137 (5), p.1555-1567
Main Authors: Sánchez-Molina, D., Galtés, I., García-Vilana, S., Velázquez-Ameijide, J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Design
Energy
Forensic Medicine
Geometry
Identification
Knives
Legal medicine
Medical Law
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Murders & murder attempts
Original Article
Prediction models
Probabilistic models
Skin
Stabbings
Statistical analysis
Statistical inference
Thorax
Weapons
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Summary:The aim of this article is to provide a scientific and statistical basis to identify the murder weapon in stabbing cases from the geometric characteristics of the stab-marks left on human ribs. For this purpose, a quantitative predictive model is developed, based on geometric measurements of the stab-mark and its location along the rib. A general method based on Bayesian inference and probabilities is used for the model development, rather than a deterministic model given its inability in certain occasions to identify the murder weapon. Following the process explained in this article to collect the stab-mark information required, the complete probabilistic model exposed attained a high accuracy in the identification of the murder weapon between two macroscopically identical blades with a microscopic alteration in one of them (more than 90% of correct identification is achieved).
ISSN:0937-9827
1437-1596
DOI:10.1007/s00414-022-02933-8