Longterm evaluation of land use changes on catchment water balance––a case study from North-East Germany

• Published in: Physics and chemistry of the earth. Parts A/B/C 2003, Vol.28 (33), p.1281-1290
• Main Author: Wegehenkel, Martin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Catchment water balance; Discharge; Hydrological modelling; Impact of afforestation; Land use change scenarios
• ISSN: 1474-7065; 1873-5193
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2003.09.004

In this paper, the longterm effects of an afforestation scenario on catchment water balance are analyzed taking into account the results of a regional case study. The analysis is based on the GIS-coupled conceptual hydrological simulation model T heseus for the spatially distributed calculation of water balance and discharge. In the regional case study, longterm model runs were performed using a detailed spatial data set from a mesoscale catchment together with time series of measured daily discharge rates and meteorological data from the period 1953–1997. The catchment is located at the moraine landscape of North-East Germany. Based on this data set and the spatially distributed modelling results from T heseus, the impact of the actual land use and of an afforestation scenario on water balance dynamics are analyzed. For the water balance in the catchment within the afforestation scenario, model calculations predict a decrease in discharge of the order of 5–48% with the average of 24% and an increase in evapotranspiration of the order of 3–31% with the average of 14% in comparison with the actual land use. The decrease in extreme peak discharges due to the afforestation scenario was of the order of 4–5%.