Quantifying the impacts of predation by Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus on an Atlantic Puffin Fratercula arctica population: Implications for conservation management and impact assessments

• Published in: Marine environmental research 2023-06, Vol.188, p.105994-105994, Article 105994
• Main Authors: Langlois Lopez, Samuel, Daunt, Francis, Wilson, Jared, O'Hanlon, Nina J., Searle, Kate R., Bennett, Sophie, Newell, Mark A., Harris, Michael P., Masden, Elizabeth
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animals; Charadriiformes; Conservation; Population Dynamics; Population modelling; Population viability analysis; Predator-prey relationships; Predatory Behavior; Seabirds; Seasons; Wildlife conflicts
• ISSN: 0141-1136; 1879-0291
• DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105994

The management of predator-prey conflicts can be a key aspect of species conservation. For management approaches to be effective, a robust understanding of the predator-prey relationship is needed, particularly when both predator and prey are species of conservation concern. On the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland, numbers of breeding Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, a generalist predator, have been increasing since the 1980s, which has led to increasing numbers of sympatrically breeding Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica being predated during the breeding season. This may have consequences for species management on the Isle of May and impact assessments of offshore windfarms in the wider Firth of Forth area. We used population viability analysis to quantify under what predation pressure the Atlantic Puffin population may decline and become locally extinct over a three-generation period. The predation level empirically estimated in 2017 (1120 Puffins per year) was not sufficient to drive a decline in the Puffin population. Rather, an increase to approximately 3000 Puffins per year would be required to cause a population decline, and >4000 to drive the population to quasi-extinction within 66 years. We discuss the likelihood of such a scenario being reached on the Isle of May, and we recommend that where predator-prey conflicts occur, predation-driven mortality should be regularly quantified to inform conservation management and population viability analyses associated with impact assessments. •Seabird predation by other seabirds may impact the demographic rates of seabird populations.•Population Viability Analysis as a useful tool to quantify predator-prey conflicts.•Quantifying seabird predation is key to inform predator-prey management.•Quantifying seabird predation can improve accuracy of impact assessments.