Defining Clinically Meaningful Subgroups for Risk Stratification in Patients Undergoing Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Combined Unsupervised and Supervised Machine Learning Approach

• Published in: The Journal of arthroplasty 2023-10, Vol.38 (10), p.1990-1997.e1
• Main Authors: Lu, Yining, Salmons, Harold I., Mickley, John P., Bedard, Nicholas A., Taunton, Michael J., Wyles, Cody C.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: adult reconstruction; artificial intelligence; complications; outcomes; predictive model; preoperative
• ISSN: 0883-5403; 1532-8406
• DOI: 10.1016/j.arth.2023.06.027

Studies developing predictive models from large datasets to risk-stratify patients under going revision total hip arthroplasties (rTHAs) are limited. We used machine learning (ML) to stratify patients undergoing rTHA into risk-based subgroups. We retrospectively identified 7,425 patients who underwent rTHA from a national database. An unsupervised random forest algorithm was used to partition patients into high-risk and low-risk strata based on similarities in rates of mortality, reoperation, and 25 other postoperative complications. A risk calculator was produced using a supervised ML algorithm to identify high-risk patients based on preoperative parameters. There were 3,135 and 4,290 patients identified in the high-risk and low-risk subgroups, respectively. Each group significantly differed by rate of 30-day mortalities, unplanned reoperations/readmissions, routine discharges, and hospital lengths of stay (P < .05). An Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm identified preoperative platelets < 200, hematocrit > 35 or < 20, increasing age, albumin < 3, international normalized ratio > 2, body mass index > 35, American Society of Anesthesia class ≥ 3, blood urea nitrogen > 50 or < 30, creatinine > 1.5, diagnosis of hypertension or coagulopathy, and revision for periprosthetic fracture and infection as predictors of high risk. Clinically meaningful risk strata in patients undergoing rTHA were identified using an ML clustering approach. Preoperative labs, demographics, and surgical indications have the greatest impact on differentiating high versus low risk. III.