Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India

The aim of this research was to simulate the future water balance of the Silwani watershed, Jharkhand, India, under the combined effect of land use and climate change based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model. The future climate prediction was d...

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Published in:Environmental science and pollution research international 2024-09, Vol.31 (41), p.54311-54324
Main Authors: Kumar, Mukesh, Mahato, Lakhan Lal, Suryavanshi, Shakti, Singh, Sudhir Kumar, Kundu, Arnab, Dutta, Dipanwita, Lal, Deepak
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Case studies
Cellular automata
Climate Change
Climate models
Climate prediction
Computer simulation
Creeks & streams
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecotoxicology
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Environmental science
Fossil fuels
Groundwater
Groundwater - chemistry
Groundwater runoff
Hydrologic models
Hydrology
India
Land cover
Land use
Markov analysis
Markov chains
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
Resilient and Sustainable Water Management in Agriculture
Runoff
Soil erosion
Soil water
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Surface runoff
Waste Water Technology
Water balance
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Water shortages
Watershed management
Watersheds
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Summary:The aim of this research was to simulate the future water balance of the Silwani watershed, Jharkhand, India, under the combined effect of land use and climate change based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model. The future climate prediction was done based on daily bias-corrected datasets of the INMCM5 climate model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585), which represent the fossil fuel development of the world. After a successful model run, water balance components like surface runoff, groundwater contribution to stream flow, and ET were simulated. The anticipated change in land use/land cover (LULC) between 2020 and 2030 reflects a slight increase (3.9 mm) in groundwater contribution to stream flow while slight decrease in surface runoff (4.8 mm). The result of this research work helps the planners to plan any similar watershed for future conservation.
ISSN:1614-7499
0944-1344
1614-7499
DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-27547-4