A socio-ecological model of the Segura River basin, Spain

• Published in: Ecological modelling 2023-04, Vol.478, p.110284, Article 110284
• Main Authors: Zuluaga-Guerra, Paula Andrea, Martínez, Julia, Esteve Selma, Miguel Angel, Dell'Angelo, Jampel
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: arid lands; basins; groundwater; Hydraulic paradigm; intensive farming; Irrigated agriculture; irrigation water; Semiarid ecosystems; Socio-ecological systems; Spain; System dynamics modelling; Water governance; water management; water supply; watersheds
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110284

•This is a system-dynamics model of the effects of the hydraulic paradigm in Spain.•The model provides a basis to understand complex socio-ecological deterioration.•The interactions among societal and institutional factors are the model's drivers.•These drivers explain irrigated agriculture expansion and its ecological impacts.•Results suggest transformative alternatives to current water governance practices. The Segura River basin in South-East Spain is home to aquatic and dry-land ecosystems of regional significance. Pressurised, over the course of the last five decades, by interests of agricultural origin, the basin is caught up in a persistent water crisis traversed by conflict and socio-ecological deterioration. This article presents a socio-ecological-system characterisation of the Segura River basin with a focus on the interactions between institutional performance and expectations on irrigation water supply. The contribution of this research is twofold: first, it provides a model that develops a conceptual articulation of a socio-ecological framework in the idiom of Systems Dynamics; second, it generates (both numerical and qualitative) policy-relevant insights into the basin's crisis, in a way that fully reflects its complexity. Our results indicate that ∼333.100 ha of drylands and agro-natural landscapes were lost to agriculture, and that groundwater overexploitation reached ∼500 Hm3 within the 1960-2021 modelling horizon. Our work accurately models the pervasive impacts of intensive agriculture expansion in the Segura basin and portrays some of the socio-ecological consequences of the hydraulic paradigm in Spain, raising crucial doubts on the dominant forms of water governance in the region.