Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions

For the first time, ESA evaluations can include impacts on polar bears from greenhouse gas emissions In 2008, projections that up to two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by mid-century ( 1 ) led to polar bears becoming the first species listed under the US Endangered Species Act (ES...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2023-09, Vol.381 (6661), p.949-951
Main Authors: Amstrup, Steven C., Bitz, Cecilia M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Aquatic mammals
Climate change
Emissions
Endangered species
Global temperatures
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Human influences
Polar bears
Sea ice
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Summary:For the first time, ESA evaluations can include impacts on polar bears from greenhouse gas emissions In 2008, projections that up to two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by mid-century ( 1 ) led to polar bears becoming the first species listed under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA) because of threats from anthropogenic climate warming. Updated analyses ( 2 ) corroborated the 2008 projections and showed a linear but inverse relationship between Arctic sea ice extent and global mean temperature. Despite the relationship between warming and sea ice loss, absence of a quantitative link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, sea ice loss, and declining polar bear vital rates has foiled full ESA implementation for polar bears. By quantifying the relationship between anthropogenic GHG emissions and polar bear recruitment, we show that sensitivities to cumulative anthropogenic emissions explain observed population trends, allow estimation of demographic impacts from new emissions sources, and enable ESA procedures to assess global warming impacts of proposed actions—along with impacts on the ground.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.adh2280