Prediction of carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality based on life cycle CO2 emissions in megacity building sector: Dynamic scenario simulations of Beijing

• Published in: Environmental research 2023-12, Vol.238, p.117160-117160, Article 117160
• Main Authors: Xin, Li, Li, Sinuo, Rene, Eldon R., Lun, Xiaoxiu, Zhang, Panyue, Ma, Weifang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Building carbon footprint; carbon; China; cities; Combined decarbonization strategies; Emission reduction potential; energy; energy conservation; Energy structure adjustment; Energy-efficient buildings; heat; hydrogen; neutralization; prediction; renewable energy sources
• ISSN: 0013-9351; 1096-0953
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117160

In order to design an optimal carbon peak and carbon neutralization pathway for the high-density building sector, a dynamic prediction model is established using system-dynamics coupled building life cycle carbon emission model (SD-BLCA) with consideration of future evolutionary trajectory and time constraints. The model is applied in Beijing using the SD-BLCA combined with scenario analysis and Monte Carlo methods to explore optimal trajectory for its building sector under 30-year timeframe. The results indicate that by increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation by 7% and retrofitting 60 million m2 of existing buildings, these two mature measures can offset the growth of carbon emissions and achieve the peak target by 2025. However, achieving carbon neutrality necessitates a shift from isolated technologies to a comprehensive net-zero emissions strategy. The study proposes a time roadmap that integrates a zero-carbon energy supply system and the carbon reduction measures of the whole life cycle. This strategy primarily relies on renewable sources to provide heat, power, and hydrogen, resulting in estimated reductions of 29.8 Mt, 28.1 Mt, and 0.7 Mt, respectively. Zero energy buildings, green buildings, and renovated buildings can reduce carbon emissions through their own energy-saving measures by 8.4, 18.2, and 11.8 kg/m2, respectively. [Display omitted] •System-dynamics coupled life cycle dynamic prediction model were established.•The major CO2 emission from building operation stage ranged 52%–73% in megacity.•CO2 emission reduce 59 and 18 Mt from energy supply and consumption for building neutrality.•Renewable energy includes 51% Heat, 48% Power and 1% hydrogen in building neutrality.•Enhancement of energy efficiency and zero-carbon energy contribute building neutrality.