A systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting

Purpose - In operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting practice, there are usually many TC track guidances available from various official sources. When they do not converge, the guidances need to be ensembled by systematic approaches to formulate the best possible track as an official local TC...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Kybernetes 2005-06, Vol.34 (5), p.681-693
Main Authors: Peng, Tao-Yong, Joe Kwon, H, Lee, Woo-Jin, Lim, Jang-Ho
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Atmospheric disturbances
Atmospheric physics
Cybernetics
Cyclones
Physics
Statistical forecasting
Weather forecasting
Wind
Winds
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Summary:Purpose - In operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting practice, there are usually many TC track guidances available from various official sources. When they do not converge, the guidances need to be ensembled by systematic approaches to formulate the best possible track as an official local TC track forecasting.Design methodology approach - The main approach of the research is focused on finding an atmospheric environment favourable for TC survival (genesis) with the help of commonly accepted knowledge in atmospheric physics that reveals mechanism driving evolution and change of synoptic patterns in the atmosphere, using routinely available observational data, i.e. identification of TCF TCR areas. The techniques developed are then applied to ensemble the TC track guidances available operationally to formulate an official TC track forecasting.Findings - The results show that TC movement is very dependent on the atmospheric environment surrounding a TC. Whether the environment is favourable (TCF) or resistant (TCR) to survival of a TC system is a vital factor to determine where the TC moving. A systematic approach to the identification of the TCR TCF areas is a key technique to ensemble available TC track guidances to formulate an official TC track forecasting.Originality value - In operational TC forecasting, TC track forecasting is the most important and difficult issue. The results indicate that the systematic approach to TC track forecasting has philosophical justification, solid scientific ground, sound logic and practical viability, and thus, make TC track forecasting easy and effective.
ISSN:0368-492X
1758-7883
DOI:10.1108/03684920510595364