Evaluation of height prediction models: from traditional methods to artificial intelligence

• Published in: Pediatric research 2024-01, Vol.95 (1), p.308-315
• Main Authors: Chávez-Vázquez, Ana G., Klünder-Klünder, Miguel, Garibay-Nieto, Nayely G., López-González, Desirée, Sánchez-Curiel Loyo, Mariana, Miranda-Lora, América L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Artificial intelligence; Automation; Clinical Research Article; Cross-sectional studies; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Pediatric Surgery; Pediatrics; Predictions; Traditionalism
• ISSN: 0031-3998; 1530-0447
• DOI: 10.1038/s41390-023-02821-w

Background Traditional methods for predicting adult height (AHP) rely on manual readings of bone age (BA). However, the incorporation of artificial intelligence has recently improved the accuracy of BA readings and their incorporation into AHP models. Methods This study aimed to identify the AHP model that fits the current average height for adults in Mexico. Using a cross-sectional design, the study included 1173 participants (5–18 yr). BA readings were done by two experts (manually) and with an automated method (BoneXpert®). AHP was carried out using both traditional and automated methods. The best AHP model was the one that was closest to the population mean. Results All models overestimated the population mean (males: 0.7–6.7 cm, females: 0.9–3.7 cm). The AHP models with the smallest difference were BoneXpert for males and Bayley & Pinneau for females. However, the manual readings of BA showed significant interobserver variability (up to 43% of predictions between observers exceeded 5 cm using the Bayley & Pinneau method). Conclusion Traditional AHP models relying on manual BA readings have high interobserver variability. Therefore, BoneXpert is the most reliable option, reducing such variability and providing AHP models that remain close to the mean population height. Impact Traditional models for predicting adult height often result in overestimated height predictions. The manual reading of bone age is prone to interobserver variability, which can introduce significant biases in the prediction of adult height. The BoneXpert method minimizes the variability associated with traditional methods and demonstrates consistent results in relation to the average height of the population. This study is the first to assess adult height prediction models specifically in the current generations of Mexican children.