FROST 2.0: Factors Predicting Orthopaedic Trauma Volumes – A Validation Study

• Published in: Injury 2023-12, Vol.54 (12), p.111111-111111, Article 111111
• Main Authors: Vergouwen, Martina, Tarcea, Adina, Van Essen, Darren, Sayre, Eric C, White, Neil J
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Fractures; Orthopaedic Surgery; Outdoor Falls; Resource Utilization; Trauma; Weather; Winter
• ISSN: 0020-1383; 1879-0267
• DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2023.111111

•Summer and winter season predicted increased surgical orthopaedic trauma in Alberta.•Performing more after-hours surgery was the primary strategy for managing significant increases in orthopaedic trauma volumes.•Surgical orthopaedic resources should be variably allocated based on time of year.•The presence of ice is likely a valid predictor of increased orthopaedic trauma that should be explored further with machine learning. The anecdotal relationship between weather, season, and orthopaedic trauma volumes is understood by patients and healthcare providers: when the winter ground is icy, people fall. Previous research established that winter and summer months as well as ice and snow were significant predictors of orthopaedic trauma and surges in volumes. The current study validates the previously established predictive model in one Canadian city; the original methods were repeated using a new, yet geographically similar dataset. The effect of month and ice were consistent, which suggests the proposed model has sufficient external validity to guide resource allocation and primary prevention strategies.