The Tech Buzz Game [stock market prediction

Prediction markets, also known as information or decision markets, are designed to forecast future events or trends. Internet-based prediction markets can easily aggregate the insights of an unlimited number of potentially knowledgeable people asynchronously. The Tech Buzz Game - a joint venture bet...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Computer (Long Beach, Calif.) Calif.), 2005-07, Vol.38 (7), p.94-97
Main Authors: Mangold, B, Dooley, M, Flake, G W, Hoffman, H, Kasturi, T, Pennock, D M, Dornfest, R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aggregates
Conferences
Field tests
Games
Markets
Players
Raw materials
Trends
Citations: Items that cite this one
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Summary:Prediction markets, also known as information or decision markets, are designed to forecast future events or trends. Internet-based prediction markets can easily aggregate the insights of an unlimited number of potentially knowledgeable people asynchronously. The Tech Buzz Game - a joint venture between Yahoo! Research Labs and O'Reilly Media - is a fantasy prediction market launched in March 2005 at the O'Reilly Emerging Technology (ETech) Conference. The game consists of multiple sub-markets that pit a handful of rival technologies, each represented by a stock, against one another. The game's object is to anticipate future search buzz and buy and sell stocks accordingly. Thus, a player who believes BitTorrent stock is undervalued might buy shares, while a player who thinks BitTorrent is overpriced might sell the stock or instead purchase shares in a competing peer-to-peer technology. The Tech Buzz Game serves two key research-oriented goals. One is to evaluate the power of prediction markets to forecast high-tech trends. The other goal of the Tech Buzz Game is to field test the dynamic pari-mutuel market, a Yahoo! Research Labs trading mechanism designed to price and allocate shares.
ISSN:0018-9162
DOI:10.1109/MC.2005.243