The effect of El Niño and La Niña episodes on the existing niche and potential distribution of vector and host species of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis

• Published in: Acta tropica 2024-01, Vol.249, p.107060-107060, Article 107060
• Main Authors: Ávila-Jiménez, Julián, Gutiérrez, Juan David, Altamiranda-Saavedra, Mariano
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: America; Ecological niches; ENSO; Potential distribution
• ISSN: 0001-706X; 1873-6254
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.107060

•The study can guide integrated vector management programs for leishmaniasis, targeting surveillance and control measures more effectively.•By understanding how potential distributions change with climatic anomalies, health agencies can anticipate outbreaks and adjust strategies accordingly.•The research provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission under varying climatic conditions.•It highlights the need for comprehensive approaches that consider both host and vector species and their interactions in disease management.•The study's findings can inform policy decisions and resource allocation for disease prevention and control. Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans by a protozoan parasite through sandfly vectors and multiple vertebrate hosts. The Pan American Health Organization reported a declining trend in cases, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Nicaragua, and Bolivia having the most cases in 2020. There are still knowledge gaps in transmission and the parasite-host relationship. Ecological niche modeling has been used to study host-vector relationships, disease dynamics, and the impact of climate change. Understanding these aspects can aid in early surveillance and vector control strategies. The potential distribution of five host species associated with the transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) was modeled. Occurrence data were collected for each host species, and environmental variables were used to build the models. Climatic data from El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral episodes were used to compare the predicted distributions. Additionally, the potential distributions of four vector species were compared to identify overlaps with host species. Niche analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in vector niches across episodes and to identify host-vector pairs based on niche overlap in geographic and environmental spaces. After spatial thinning, 467 records were obtained, and 1,190 candidate models were evaluated for each species. Results showed the distribution of occurrences in the environmental space, highlighting a high risk of extrapolation beyond the calibration areas. Movement-Oriented Parity analysis revealed distinct distribution patterns under different climate conditions, with areas of environmental similarity identified. Bradypus variegatus exhibited a broad potential distribution, while Dasypus novemcinctus and Didelphis marsupialis had more restricted ranges. Sylvilagus brazili