Uncertainty analysis in dissolved oxygen modeling in streams

Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter-Phelps prototype model. Basic un...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental management (New York) 2004-08, Vol.34 (2), p.233-244
Main Authors: HAMED, Maged M, EL-BESHRY, Manar Z
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Biological and medical sciences
Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife
Dissolved oxygen
Environmental management
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects
Models, Theoretical
Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo simulation
Oxygen - analysis
Probability distribution
Random variables
Rivers
Sensitivity analysis
Solubility
Studies
Surface water
Water - chemistry
Water Pollutants - analysis
Water quality
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Summary:Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter-Phelps prototype model. Basic uncertainty in the input parameters is considered by representing them as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. Results obtained from FORM analysis compared well with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis also presents the stochastic sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome in the form of uncertainty importance factors, and shows how they change with changing simulation time. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the effect of selection of different probability distribution functions for the three most important parameters on the design point, exceedance probability, and importance factors.
ISSN:0364-152X
1432-1009
DOI:10.1007/s00267-003-0244-6