Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study

• Published in: Clinical chemistry (Baltimore, Md.) Md.), 2024-02, Vol.70 (2), p.403-413
• Main Authors: Welsh, Paul, Kimenai, Dorien M, Shah, Anoop S V, Gadd, Danni A, Marioni, Riccardo E, Woodward, Mark, Sudlow, Cathie L M, Campbell, Archie, Cleland, John G F, Pellicori, Pierpaolo, Hayward, Caroline, Mills, Nicholas L, Sattar, Naveed
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0009-9147; 1530-8561
• DOI: 10.1093/clinchem/hvad205

Abstract Background Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. Methods In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors. Results The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th–75th percentile, 35–58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th–75th percentile, 10.8–13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. Conclusions A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.