Forecasting the future prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in Korea through 2048: an epidemiologic study employing autoregressive integrated moving average models

• Published in: Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology 2024-05, Vol.39 (5), p.836-846
• Main Authors: Kim, Ji Eun, Oh, Shin Ju, Lee, Chang Kyun
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Age; Age Factors; Aged; Autoregressive integrated moving average; Child; Child, Preschool; Colitis, Ulcerative - epidemiology; Crohn Disease - epidemiology; Crohn's disease; Epidemiology; Female; Forecasting; Generalized linear models; Healthcare burden; Humans; Infant; Inflammatory bowel disease; Inflammatory bowel diseases; Inflammatory Bowel Diseases - epidemiology; Intestine; Korean National Health Insurance Service; Linear Models; Male; Middle Aged; Prediction models; Prevalence; Prevalence prediction; Republic of Korea - epidemiology; Risk groups; Sex Factors; Time Factors; Ulcerative colitis; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0815-9319; 1440-1746
• DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16447

Background and Aim The global inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) escalation has precipitated an increased disease burden and economic impact, particularly in Asia. This study primarily aimed to predict the future prevalence of IBD in Korea and elucidate its evolution pattern. Methods Using a validated diagnostic algorithm, we analyzed data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service between 2004 and 2017 to identify patients with IBD. We predicted the number and prevalence of patients with IBD from 2018 to 2048 with the autoregressive integrated moving average method. A generalized linear model (GLM) was also employed to identify factors contributing to the observed trend in IBD prevalence. Results Our prediction model validation demonstrated an acceptable error range for IBD prevalence, with a 2.45% error rate and a mean absolute difference of 2.61. We foresee a sustained average annual increase of 4.51 IBD cases per 100 000, culminating in a prevalence of 239.73 per 100 000 by 2048. The forecasted average annual percent change was 6.17% for males and 2.75% for females over the next 30 years. The GLM analysis revealed that age, gender and time significantly impact the prevalence of IBD, with notable disparities observed between genders in specific age groups for both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis (all interaction P