Quantitative flood risk assessment for Polders

In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advan...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Reliability engineering & system safety 2005-11, Vol.90 (2), p.229-237
Main Authors: van Manen, Sipke E., Brinkhuis, Martine
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Buildings. Public works
Dams and subsidiary installations
Exact sciences and technology
Hydraulic constructions
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Reliability theory. Replacement problems
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Summary:In the Netherlands, the design of dikes and other water retaining structures is based on an acceptable probability (frequency) of overtopping. In 1993 a new safety concept was introduced based on total flood risk. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequences. In recent years advanced tools have become available to calculate the actual flood risk of a polder. This paper describes the application of these tools to an existing lowland river area. The complete chain of calculations necessary to estimate the risk of flooding of a polder (or dike ring) is presented. The difficulties in applying the present day tools and the largest uncertainties in the calculations are shown.
ISSN:0951-8320
1879-0836
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2004.10.002