Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US

The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of environmental research and public health 2024-01, Vol.21 (1), p.67
Main Authors: Zuccarelli, Joseph, Seaman, Laura, Rader, Kevin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bans
Contact tracing
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Curfews
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Early Intervention, Educational
Epidemics
Generalized linear models
Government
Growth rate
Humans
Intervention
Linear Models
Masks
Mobility
Pandemics
Public health
School closures
Shelter in place
Social distancing
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Summary:The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the initial spread of COVID-19 within two states-Massachusetts and Michigan. Specifically, we use linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between four NPIs and individuals' point-of-sale (POS) credit card transactions, as well as the relationship between subsequent changes in POS transactions and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Our analysis reveals a significant negative association between NPIs and daily POS transactions, particularly a dose-response relationship, in which stringent workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and gathering restrictions were all associated with decreased POS transactions. We also uncover a significant positive association between 12-day lagged changes in POS transactions compared to pre-pandemic baselines and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Overall, our study supports previous findings that early NPIs reduced human mobility and COVID-19 transmission in the US, providing policymakers with quantitative evidence concerning the effectiveness of NPIs.
ISSN:1660-4601
1661-7827
1660-4601
DOI:10.3390/ijerph21010067