Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

• Published in: Economics and human biology 2024-01, Vol.52, p.101353-101353, Article 101353
• Main Authors: López-Mendoza, Héctor, González-Álvarez, María A., Montañés, Antonio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: COVID-19 - epidemiology; Government; Government response index; Granger causality; Humans; Incidence; Incidence, SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Stringency indexes
• ISSN: 1570-677X; 1873-6130
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101353

This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by governments to control the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a Panel VAR model for the OECD countries, we test for Granger causality between the 7-day cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and government response indexes. Granger-type statistics reveal evidence that the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the measures taken by governments. However, limited or nonexistent evidence supports the reverse situation. This suggests that government measures were not highly effective in controlling the pandemic. While not implying total ineffectiveness, our results indicate a considerable lack of efficacy, emphasizing a lesson for governments to learn from and correct in preparation for similar events in the future. •We study the impact of government measures on the COVID-19 pandemic.•We use stringency indices to assess the government measures.•We test for Granger non-causality between these indexes and the pandemic variables.•Evidence against the hypothesis of Granger non-causality is scant.•This raises some doubts on the effectiveness of the health policies.