Simulating the impact of optimized prevention and control measures on the transmission of monkeypox in the United States: A model‐based study

• Published in: Journal of medical virology 2024-02, Vol.96 (2), p.e29419-n/a
• Main Authors: Cao, Yawen, Fang, Wenbin, Chen, Yingying, Zhang, Hengchuan, Ni, Ruyu, Pan, Guixia
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Diagnosis; Environmental risk; Epidemics; Evaluation; Immunization; monkeypox virus; Mpox; Prevention; prevention and control measures; Public health; Risk; Simulation; Simulation analysis; susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered model; Vaccination
• ISSN: 0146-6615; 1096-9071; 1096-9071
• DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29419

This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible‐exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention and control measures. To further assess the impact of public health measures on the transmission of monkeypox, different intervention scenarios were developed based on the classic SEIR model, considering reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, diagnosis delay, and environmental transmission risk, respectively. We evaluated the impact of different measures by simulating their spread in different scenarios. During the simulation period, 8709 people were infected with monkeypox. The simulation analysis showed that: (1) the most effective measures to control monkeypox transmission during the early stage of the epidemic were reducing contact and enhancing vaccination, with cumulative infections at 51.20% and 41.90% of baseline levels, respectively; (2) shortening diagnosis time would delay the peak time of the epidemic by 96 days; and (3) the risk of environmental transmission of monkeypox virus was relatively low. This study indirectly proved the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures, such as reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, shortening diagnosis time, and low risk of environmental transmission, which also provided an important reference and containment experience for nonepidemic countries.