Impact of climate change and land cover dynamics on nitrate transport to surface waters

The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental monitoring and assessment 2024-03, Vol.196 (3), p.270-270, Article 270
Main Authors: Boyacioglu, Hulya, Gunacti, Mert Can, Barbaros, Filiz, Gul, Ali, Gul, Gulay Onusluel, Ozturk, Tugba, Kurnaz, M. Levent
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Biological Transport
Climate and land use
Climate Change
Climatic data
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecology
Ecotoxicology
Emission analysis
Environment
Environmental impact
Environmental Management
Environmental Monitoring
Farming systems
Hydrologic models
Land cover
Land use
Loads (forces)
Monitoring/Environmental Analysis
Nitrates
Pastoralism
Rainfall intensity
Soil
Soil water
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Surface water
Temporal resolution
Water quality
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Summary:The study investigated the impact of climate and land cover change on water quality. The novel contribution of the study was to investigate the individual and combined impacts of climate and land cover change on water quality with high spatial and temporal resolution in a basin in Turkey. The global circulation model MPI-ESM-MR was dynamically downscaled to 10-km resolution under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model stream flow and nitrate loads. The land cover model outputs that were produced by the Land Change Modeler (LCM) were used for these simulation studies. Results revealed that decreasing precipitation intensity driven by climate change could significantly reduce nitrate transport to surface waters. In the 2075–2100 period, nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) loads transported to surface water decreased by more than 75%. Furthermore, the transition predominantly from forestry to pastoral farming systems increased loads by about 6%. The study results indicated that fine-resolution land use and climate data lead to better model performance. Environmental managers can also benefit greatly from the LCM-based forecast of land use changes and the SWAT model’s attribution of changes in water quality to land use changes. Graphical abstract
ISSN:0167-6369
1573-2959
DOI:10.1007/s10661-024-12402-x