Development and Internal Validation of a Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Subjects with MAFLD: A Cohort Study

: Fatty liver disease with metabolic dysfunction (MAFLD) is a new concept proposed to replace the previous concept of Non-Alcoholic Hepatic Steatosis (NAFLD). We developed and internally validated a prognostic model to predict the likelihood of death in a cohort of subjects with MAFLD. Our work invo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of clinical medicine 2024-02, Vol.13 (4), p.1181
Main Authors: Bonfiglio, Caterina, Campanella, Angelo, Donghia, Rossella, Bianco, Antonella, Franco, Isabella, Curci, Ritanna, Bagnato, Claudia Beatrice, Tatoli, Rossella, Giannelli, Gianluigi, Cuccaro, Francesco
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Blood pressure
Causes and theories of causation
Cholesterol
Cohort analysis
Diabetes
Disease prevention
Diseases
Event history analysis
Examinations
Fatty liver
Gastroenterology
Liver diseases
Medical prognosis
Metabolic syndrome
Methods
Mortality
Prevention
Risk factors
Validity
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Summary:: Fatty liver disease with metabolic dysfunction (MAFLD) is a new concept proposed to replace the previous concept of Non-Alcoholic Hepatic Steatosis (NAFLD). We developed and internally validated a prognostic model to predict the likelihood of death in a cohort of subjects with MAFLD. Our work involved two steps: the first was the construction of a bootstrapped multivariable Cox model for mortality risk prognosis and the second was its validation. The study cohort included 1506 subjects, of which 907 were used for internal validation. Discriminant measures for the final model were R 0.6845 and Harrell's C 0.8422 in the development and R 0.6930 and Harrell's C 0.8465 in the validation. We used the nine independent prognostic factors selected by the LASSO Cox procedure and fitted by the bootstrap Cox survival model, and observed β were: Gender 0.356 1.42 ( < 0.008), Age 0.146 ( < 0.001), Glycemia 0.004 ( < 0.002), Total Cholesterol -0.0040 ( < 0.009), Gamma Glutamyl Transpeptidase 0.009 ( < 0.001), SBP 0.009 ( < 0.036), DBP -0.016 ( < 0.041), ALP 0.008 ( < 0.071) and Widowhood 0.550 ( < 0.001). We produced and validated a model to estimate the probability of death in subjects with MAFLD. The instruments we used showed satisfactory predictive capabilities.
ISSN:2077-0383
2077-0383
DOI:10.3390/jcm13041181