An improved methodology for assessing risk in aircraft operations at airports, applied to runway overruns

• Published in: Safety science 2004-12, Vol.42 (10), p.891-905
• Main Authors: Kirkland, I.D.L., Caves, R.E., Humphreys, I.M., Pitfield, D.E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air transportation and traffic; Aircraft overruns and their probability; Airport runway; Applied sciences; Buildings; Buildings. Public works; Exact sciences and technology; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Public facilities (municipal, law court, etc.); Risk management; Runway end safety areas; Transportation infrastructure; Types of buildings; Wreckage location and degree of damage models
• ISSN: 0925-7535; 1879-1042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2004.04.002

The paper addresses the need for models to assess risk at any particular airport, based on risk management principles used by the present risk management process, that use all available data on previous accidents. The case of runway overruns is taken as an example application, because new regulations require the provision of much longer Runway End Safety Areas than had previously been the norm. The paper presents models for overruns arising from both landings and aborted takeoffs. In each case models of overrun risk, of wreckage location and of the consequences are detailed. An example application of the models is then given in a hypothetical risk assessment. The models, though adding value to existing methods of assessing risk, are not as good as they could be, due to the lack of data on normal operations. It was therefore possible only to relate the rate of overruns to the rate of occurrence of the possible driving factors for a few factors where such comparable data on normal operations existed. It is recommended that effort be put into the collection of data to allow a more comprehensive analysis.