Differing spatial patterns of the urban heat exposure of elderly populations in two megacities identifies alternate adaptation strategies

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2021-08, Vol.781, p.146455, Article 146455
• Main Authors: Park, Chae Yeon, Thorne, James H., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Lee, Dong Kun, Takahashi, Kiyoshi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adaptive capacity; air; climate; Climate change; demographic statistics; Elder population vulnerability; elderly; environment; heat; Heat hazard; heat island; population density; risk; Sensible heat flux; Urban heat island
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146455

Mapping the elderly population exposure to heat hazard in urban areas is important to inform adaptation strategies for increasingly-deadly urban heat under climate change. However, fine-scale mapping is lacking, because global climate change projections have not previously been integrated with urban heat island effects especially with urban three-dimensional characteristics for within-city heat risk analyses. This study compared the spatial patterns of deadly heat exposure for elderly populations in two East Asian megacities, Seoul and Tokyo, using current climate (2006–2015) and two future periods (2040s and 2090s). We integrated global warming projections (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with local urban characteristics and demographics. We found that, for the historical period, the overall hotspots of elderly population exposure to urban heat was larger in Tokyo because of relatively higher maximum air temperatures and lack of green spaces, whereas in the future periods, Seoul will have larger hotspots because the elderly population density will have increased. About 20% of the area in Seoul and 0.3–1% of Tokyo will be hotpots in the 2040s, and the size of these hotspots increases to 25–26% and 2–3%, respectively, in the 2090s. The spatial patterns of hotspots identify different types of priority areas and suggest that alternative adaptation strategies for two cities are appropriate. The approach introduced here will be useful for identifying sustainable thermal environments in other cities with high density elderly population and severe heat hazard. [Display omitted] •Integrating climate change and UHI effect detects intra-city heat hazard variations.•Tokyo had more heat hazard hotspots for elderly exposure than Seoul in the past.•Climate change will increase the number of hotspots in both Seoul and Tokyo.•Demographic change will increase the hotspots in Seoul but decreases them in Tokyo.•Hotspot results suggest priority location and measures for adaptation strategies.