Modeling the risk of aquatic species invasion spread through boater movements and river connections

• Published in: Conservation biology 2024-08, Vol.38 (4), p.e14260-n/a
• Main Authors: Kinsley, Amy C., Kao, Szu‐Yu Zoe, Enns, Eva A., Escobar, Luis E., Qiao, Huijie, Snellgrove, Nicholas, Muellner, Ulirich, Muellner, Petra, Muthukrishnan, Ranjan, Craft, Meggan E., Larkin, Daniel J., Phelps, Nicholas B. D.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aquatic ecosystems; aquatic invasive species; asignación de recursos; decision‐support tool; Dispersal; Dreissena polymorpha; Environmental management; especie acuática invasora; Freshwater molluscs; herramienta de decisiones; Heterogeneity; Introduced species; invasion risk; Invasions; Invasive species; modelo de redes; Mollusks; multilayer network; Multilayers; Mussels; network model; Nitellopsis obtusa; Nonnative species; Patchiness; red multicapa; resource allocation; riesgo de invasión; Risk management; Simulation models; Spatial heterogeneity
• ISSN: 0888-8892; 1523-1739; 1523-1739
• DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14260

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) are one of the greatest threats to the functioning of aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Once an invasive species has been introduced to a new region, many governments develop management strategies to reduce further spread. Nevertheless, managing AIS in a new region is challenging because of the vast areas that need protection and limited resources. Spatial heterogeneity in invasion risk is driven by environmental suitability and propagule pressure, which can be used to prioritize locations for surveillance and intervention activities. To better understand invasion risk across aquatic landscapes, we developed a simulation model to estimate the likelihood of a waterbody becoming invaded with an AIS. The model included waterbodies connected via a multilayer network that included boater movements and hydrological connections. In a case study of Minnesota, we used zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) and starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) as model species. We simulated the impacts of management scenarios developed by stakeholders and created a decision‐support tool available through an online application provided as part of the AIS Explorer dashboard. Our baseline model revealed that 89% of new zebra mussel invasions and 84% of new starry stonewort invasions occurred through boater movements, establishing it as a primary pathway of spread and offering insights beyond risk estimates generated by traditional environmental suitability models alone. Our results highlight the critical role of interventions applied to boater movements to reduce AIS dispersal. Modelo del riesgo de la invasión de especies acuáticas dispersadas por movimiento de botes y conexiones entre ríos Resumen Las especies acuáticas invasoras (EAI) son una de las principales amenazas para el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas acuáticos a nivel mundial. Una vez que una especie invasora ha sido introducida a una nueva región, muchos gobiernos desarrollan estrategias de manejo para disminuir la dispersión. Sin embargo, el manejo de las especies acuáticas invasoras en una nueva región se complica debido a las amplias áreas que necesitan protección y los recursos limitados. La heterogeneidad espacial de un riesgo de invasión es causada por la idoneidad ambiental y la presión de propágulo, que puede usarse para priorizar la ubicación de las actividades de vigilancia e intervención. Desarrollamos una simulación para estimar la probabilidad de que un cuerpo de agua sea invadid