A COVID-19 specific multiparametric and ECG-based score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality: ELCOVID score

• Published in: Internal and emergency medicine 2024-08, Vol.19 (5), p.1279-1290
• Main Authors: Zuin, Marco, Ferrari, Roberto, Guardigli, Gabriele, Malagù, Michele, Vitali, Francesco, Zucchetti, Ottavio, D’Aniello, Emanuele, Di Ienno, Luca, Gibiino, Federico, Cimaglia, Paolo, Grosseto, Daniele, Corzani, Alessandro, Galvani, Marcello, Ortolani, Paolo, Rubboli, Andrea, Tortorici, Gianfranco, Casella, Gianni, Sassone, Biagio, Navazio, Alessandro, Rossi, Luca, Aschieri, Daniela, Mezzanotte, Roberto, Manfrini, Marco, Bertini, Matteo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aged; Aged, 80 and over; COVID-19; COVID-19 - complications; COVID-19 - diagnosis; COVID-19 - mortality; COVID-19 - physiopathology; EKG; Electrocardiography - methods; Female; Heart; Hospital Mortality; Humans; Im - Original; Internal Medicine; Italy - epidemiology; Male; management and prognosis; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Middle Aged; Mortality; Prospective Studies; Risk Assessment - methods; Severity of Illness Index
• ISSN: 1828-0447; 1970-9366; 1970-9366
• DOI: 10.1007/s11739-024-03599-3

We aimed to develop and validate a COVID-19 specific scoring system, also including some ECG features, to predict all-cause in-hospital mortality at admission. Patients were retrieved from the ELCOVID study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04367129 ), a prospective, multicenter Italian study enrolling COVID-19 patients between May to September 2020. For the model validation, we randomly selected two-thirds of participants to create a derivation dataset and we used the remaining one-third of participants as the validation set. Over the study period, 1014 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (mean age 74 years, 61% males) met the inclusion criteria and were included in this analysis. During a median follow-up of 12 (IQR 7–22) days, 359 (35%) patients died. Age (HR 2.25 [95%CI 1.72–2.94], p