Ambient fine particulate matter and daily mortality: a comparative analysis of observed and estimated exposure in 347 cities

• Published in: International journal of epidemiology 2024-04, Vol.53 (3)
• Main Authors: Yu, Wenhua, Huang, Wenzhong, Gasparrini, Antonio, Sera, Francesco, Schneider, Alexandra, Breitner, Susanne, Kyselý, Jan, Schwartz, Joel, Madureira, Joana, Gaio, Vânia, Guo, Yue Leon, Xu, Rongbin, Chen, Gongbo, Yang, Zhengyu, Wen, Bo, Wu, Yao, Zanobetti, Antonella, Kan, Haidong, Song, Jiangning, Li, Shanshan, Guo, Yuming
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Air Pollutants - adverse effects; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air Pollution - adverse effects; Air Pollution - analysis; Cardiovascular Diseases - mortality; Cities - epidemiology; Environmental Exposure - adverse effects; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Female; Humans; Machine Learning; Male; Middle Aged; Mortality - trends; Particulate Matter - adverse effects; Particulate Matter - analysis; Respiratory Tract Diseases - mortality
• ISSN: 1464-3685; 1464-3685
• DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae066

Model-estimated air pollution exposure products have been widely used in epidemiological studies to assess the health risks of particulate matter with diameters of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5). However, few studies have assessed the disparities in health effects between model-estimated and station-observed PM2.5 exposures. We collected daily all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality data in 347 cities across 15 countries and regions worldwide based on the Multi-City Multi-Country collaborative research network. The station-observed PM2.5 data were obtained from official monitoring stations. The model-estimated global PM2.5 product was developed using a machine-learning approach. The associations between daily exposure to PM2.5 and mortality were evaluated using a two-stage analytical approach. We included 15.8 million all-cause, 1.5 million respiratory and 4.5 million cardiovascular deaths from 2000 to 2018. Short-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a relative risk increase (RRI) of mortality from both station-observed and model-estimated exposures. Every 10-μg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average PM2.5 was associated with overall RRIs of 0.67% (95% CI: 0.49 to 0.85), 0.68% (95% CI: -0.03 to 1.39) and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.82) for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular mortality based on station-observed PM2.5 and RRIs of 0.87% (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.06), 0.81% (95% CI: 0.08 to 1.55) and 0.71% (95% CI: 0.32 to 1.09) based on model-estimated exposure, respectively. Mortality risks associated with daily PM2.5 exposure were consistent for both station-observed and model-estimated exposures, suggesting the reliability and potential applicability of the global PM2.5 product in epidemiological studies.